If you’re on Social Security, all the speculation about rising costs due to tariffs is pretty unnerving. Your checks may be your primary source of retirement income, and unless you’re really lucky, you only see one benefit increase per year.

The next cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) won’t take effect until 2026, but the official announcement will come in Oct. 2025. That’s still a ways off, but it hasn’t stopped people from trying to estimate what it might be so they can plan for the future. Here’s what the latest projections suggest might happen to the average Social Security benefit next year.

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Predictions call for a low COLA

The Social Security COLA is calculated from the difference in third-quarter inflation data (based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W) from one year to the next.

Most recently, the difference between the 2023 and 2024 third-quarter average CPI-W reading was 2.5%, which became the COLA for 2025. It was the lowest increase since the 1.3% COLA seniors saw in 2021.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nongovernmental advocacy group for seniors, calculates new COLA projections every month. Past years have shown they’re often pretty close to the final amount, especially as October gets closer. TSCL’s April projection put the COLA at 2.3% for 2026.

That would add approximately $46 to the $1,997 average monthly benefit as of Mar. 2025. This would give the average senior about $552 more next year, and even the wealthiest Americans taking home the largest $5,108 monthly check would only get $117 more per month with a 2.3% COLA.

A higher COLA remains a possibility

In most other years, it would be difficult to imagine the COLA projection changing significantly between now and October. But President Donald Trump’s tariffs have led to concerns over rising prices. Many economists have warned that tariffs could lead to inflation on many common expenses, including groceries and medication, in the latter half of 2025 and beyond.

Higher inflation in the third quarter would indeed result in a higher COLA for 2026, which in turn would give Social Security recipients larger benefits for next year. But the extra money would go toward paying for a rising cost of living, and there’s no guarantee the COLA will be enough to completely offset inflation’s effect on buying power.

Right now, it’s difficult to predict how this will play out over the next several months. If the COLA comes in lower than you’d like, you may have to come up with a different way to get the cash you need next year. This could involve withdrawing more from your retirement savings or perhaps working part-time to supplement your checks. You’ll have a few months to weigh your options after the Social Security Administration announces the 2026 COLA in mid-October before you have to make that call.

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