The first Social Security checks with 2025’s 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) have gone out, with more coming in the following weeks. The average retired worker will now receive $1,976 per month, up from $1,927 last year. However, many seniors were hoping for a bigger increase.

Most won’t see any more significant changes to their benefits until the next COLA takes effect in 2026. We’re about nine months away from its announcement, but that hasn’t stopped people from speculating about what the 2026 COLA could look like.

Start Your Mornings Smarter! Wake up with Breakfast news in your inbox every market day. Sign Up For Free »

Image source: Getty Images.

The 2026 COLA could be smaller than 2025’s

We won’t know the official 2026 COLA until October. It’s based on the difference in third-quarter inflation data from the current year and the previous year, and we won’t have all the figures for 2025 until mid-October. But looking at inflation projections can give us a rough ballpark.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) expects the 2026 COLA to be right in line with the 2025 COLA at 2.5%, based on its most recent estimates. This is what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects as well.

Another 2.5% increase would grow the $1,976 average benefit to $2,025 per month. In reality, the 2026 average will likely be a little higher than this because average benefits tend to climb throughout the year as new beneficiaries with higher average earnings apply. But it’ll be somewhere close to that.

Slowing inflation has caused COLAs to shrink over the last couple of years after reaching historic highs during the pandemic. If that were to change over the course of 2025, it’s possible we could see a higher COLA next year. But right now, this looks unlikely.

What this means for retirees

Retirees hoping for a larger COLA in 2026 to help increase their buying power will likely be disappointed. Many argue that the COLAs don’t provide adequate inflation protection. The program has lost 20% of its buying power since 2010, according to TSCL.

The call for Social Security reform continues to grow louder, with many advocating for COLAs based on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the current Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This change would likely increase COLAs in most years. Some also want to establish a minimum 3% COLA floor.

However, given Social Security’s funding crisis and the looming possibility of benefit cuts, it’s unlikely the government will make any changes to the COLA before it devises a long-term fix for its funding shortfall. We don’t know when this will be, though it’s safe to say it’ll probably happen within the next decade, since the program only has about 10 years left until its trust funds are depleted.

That doesn’t mean benefits will disappear completely. There will still be income from payroll and benefit taxes to pay for roughly 80% of Social Security benefits.

In the meantime, it’s largely up to seniors to find other sources of retirement income to supplement their Social Security checks. Personal savings are obviously ideal because you have complete control over how you use this money. But income from a job or other government benefits could also help you make ends meet if your checks aren’t enough.

The $22,924 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook

If you’re like most Americans, you’re a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known “Social Security secrets” could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more… each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we’re all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies.

View the “Social Security secrets” »

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.