Four more years, four years later. President-elect Donald Trump is about to do what only one other person in history (Grover Cleveland) has done before him: become president for a second time after being previously voted out of office.

Social Security didn’t exist during Cleveland’s administration. However, the federal program is important today to nearly 73 million beneficiaries. What changes to Social Security might we see in Trump’s second presidential term?

Image source: Official White House photo by D. Myles Cullen.

What Trump has proposed

Trump didn’t campaign for president with a broad plan to reform Social Security. He even said at a town hall hosted by Fox News, “You don’t have to touch Social Security.” However, Trump did propose two Social Security changes during the recent presidential race.

In that town hall, he stated that the U.S. has “money laying [sic] in the ground” that could be used to fund Social Security. This was a reference to the country’s oil and gas reserves. Trump suggested that the U.S. could bolster Social Security financially by increasing oil and gas drilling, although no details have been provided about this plan.

His most publicized Social Security proposal, though, was to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits for retirees. This isn’t a new idea. Before 1985, Social Security benefits weren’t subject to federal taxes. Forty-one states don’t tax Social Security retirement benefits, either.

Trump has specifically rejected some changes to Social Security. For example, he’s adamant about not increasing the full retirement age (FRA) and has insisted that he won’t reduce Social Security benefits.

Other proposals that could impact Social Security

Some of Trump’s other proposals don’t involve changing Social Security but could still impact the federal program. For example, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) he wants to establish could identify administrative efficiencies for the Social Security Administration.

Trump proposed eliminating taxes on tips and overtime during the presidential campaign. Both moves would reduce the amount of revenue flowing into Social Security.

Many economists believe that the president-elect’s proposed tariffs of up to 20% on all imports to the U.S. (and even higher tariffs on products imported from certain countries, including China) will cause inflation to rise. If so, that could translate to higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs).

Trump has also said that millions of immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally should be deported. If this happens, it could also cause higher inflation (and therefore, higher Social Security COLAs) if businesses have to pay more to attract other workers and pass those increased costs along to customers.

Many unauthorized immigrants also pay federal taxes, a portion of which helps fund Social Security. In 2022, an estimated $22.6 billion of Social Security’s revenue stemmed from taxes paid by unauthorized immigrants, according to the American Immigration Council.

Assessing the likelihood of these changes

We might see these changes to Social Security during Trump’s second presidential term. However, just because a change is possible doesn’t mean it’s probable.

Let’s start with the most likely Social Security change to be implemented in the next Trump administration. It wouldn’t be surprising if some operational efficiencies were identified and put in place for SSA. This would be a relatively easy change that could be made without congressional approval.

Trump has some flexibility in implementing tariffs. Social Security COLAs could be impacted if he imposes the level of tariffs he’s said he would.

What about mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants? Deportations will likely increase in a second Trump term. However, the logistical, budgetary, and legal challenges involved with deporting millions of people could limit this effort and reduce the effects on Social Security.

I suspect Trump could also secure enough support in Congress to allocate more federal funds from oil and gas drilling to Social Security if he chooses to push for this change. How much impact would this make? Committing current oil and gas leasing revenue to fund Social Security would cover less than 4% of the program’s projected shortfall, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The CRFB’s analysis even concluded that opening all federal land to drilling wouldn’t be enough to prevent Social Security from running out of money.

Trump could also potentially advance his plans to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime through Congress. The difficulty, though, especially with scrapping taxes on Social Security benefits, will be in overcoming a likely filibuster by Democrats (and perhaps some Republicans) in the Senate, since all these changes could cause Social Security to become insolvent sooner than projected. Therefore, retirees probably shouldn’t bank on federal taxes on Social Security benefits going away anytime soon.

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