If you’re someone who gets a large chunk of your retirement income from Social Security, there may be a pretty big question on your mind: What will 2027’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) amount to?

It’s a valid thing to want to know. After all, inflation has been soaring, and your current benefits may be falling behind. A large raise in the new year might seem like just the thing to help you regain some buying power.

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There are a couple of key COLA estimates out for 2027 already. Here’s what they are, and how they might affect the average Social Security check.

Next year’s COLA could be substantial

If you weren’t exactly thrilled with your 2.8% Social Security COLA this year, you’re not alone. Many retirees felt that this raise was stingy and insufficient. Next year’s COLA is shaping up to be a lot larger, though.

The nonpartisan Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, is calling for a 3.8% COLA based on recent inflation readings. Meanwhile, independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson recently upped her 2027 COLA projection to 4.7%.

The average monthly Social Security retiree benefit in May was $2,083. If that 3.8% COLA estimate is correct, it means the typical benefit will increase by about $79 next year. If Johnson’s 4.7% COLA ends up being accurate, the average Social Security benefit could rise by about $98.

It’s too soon to know

The idea of a $79 or $98 monthly raise might seem exciting. But before you start counting that money, know that both of the aforementioned numbers are really just educated guesses.

Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter inflation data. Since it’s only July, we don’t have any of the official readings needed to calculate a COLA yet.

The Social Security Administration should be able to lock in a 2027 COLA in October, once inflation readings from September are made available. Until then, it’s not a good idea to bank on a specific raise.

In fact, if you’re having trouble making ends meet on Social Security, you may want to take a closer look at your overall financial picture and make changes that improve your cash flow. Those could include reducing spending, relocating to a cheaper part of the country to stretch your benefit checks, or returning to work in some shape or form.

If you have retirement savings, make sure that money is working for you. Aim for investments that pay you steadily, so you have a way to supplement your Social Security checks.

Even though current inflation data suggests that next year’s Social Security COLA could be huge, that’s not a given. So it’s best to take active steps to improve your financial situation, rather than bank on a raise that’s by no means guaranteed to come through.

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