Donald Trump had no shortage of promises throughout his campaign. He vowed to end the federal income tax on Social Security benefits, for example, as well as eliminate tax on overtime pay and tips.

While these laws have not been enacted yet (and Trump would need congressional approval to pass any sweeping tax laws), there are other ways he could influence Social Security in more indirect ways. There are two moves, in particular, that could have an impact on next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).

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1. Tariffs could influence inflation rates

Trump recently announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. He also plans to implement an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, on top of the 10% rate already in place.

Experts have debated just how much of an impact tariffs have on inflation rates. However, they do generally result in price increases, as companies hit by tariffs will often pass those costs on to consumers.

A study published in February 2025 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston estimates that Trump’s tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada could increase the “core” inflation rate — which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices — by 0.8 percentage point.

Not only could a higher inflation rate impact consumers in the short term, but it could also influence the 2026 COLA. The COLA is directly tied to shifts in inflation, so a higher inflation rate could result in a larger raise for those on Social Security.

Nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League estimates that next year’s COLA could sit at 2.3%, according to a report published in February using the most recent Consumer Price Index data. That’s just below the 2025 COLA of 2.5%. However, if inflation changes between now and October (when the next adjustment is announced), that figure could shift substantially.

Keep in mind, too, that a higher COLA isn’t necessarily a good thing if it means that inflation is also surging. While larger checks can help with rising prices, inflation often has a bigger impact on retirees’ bottom lines than the COLA.

2. Trump’s immigration crackdown could have widespread impact

During his first month in office, Trump enacted several executive orders cracking down on immigration in the U.S. While immigration may not directly affect Social Security, it could have an impact in two roundabout ways.

For one, an immigration crackdown could result in a labor shortage in some industries — which might affect the supply chain and cause price increases for consumers. While it’s unclear right now just how much of an impact these immigration practices could have on the economy, rising prices could influence the inflation rate and, by association, the COLA for next year.

Also, Trump’s immigration plans could impact Social Security’s trust funds. Social Security primarily uses payroll taxes from workers to fund current beneficiaries’ checks. A reduction in workers means less money is coming in from taxes, potentially forcing the Social Security Administration to pull more cash than expected from the trust funds to continue paying out benefits.

A 2024 study from the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that undocumented immigrants contribute about $25.7 billion per year in taxes that go toward Social Security. Right now, the trust funds are expected to run out in 2035. Without the income from undocumented workers, though, there’s a chance they could be depleted even sooner — potentially resulting in widespread benefit cuts.

It’s unclear right now exactly how Trump’s policies will affect Social Security recipients down the road. But it’s wise to keep these changes on your radar going forward to prepare your finances accordingly.

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