Social Security’s trust funds are expected to be depleted in about a decade. If the government does nothing, millions of retirees who depend on their benefits could see their checks slashed by up to 23%.

Seniors, including politicians, have been calling for reform for years now, but those calls have taken on a new urgency as the shortfall inches nearer. The recent Social Security Fairness Act is expected to accelerate the trust fund’s depletion by around six months. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal to eliminate Social Security benefit taxes could move this deadline up even sooner.

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With Trump set to take office in a few weeks, all eyes are on him and the policy changes he hopes to make. On the campaign trail, he put forward an idea he believes will resolve Social Security’s funding crisis, but the math doesn’t quite add up.

The clock is ticking down to 2035

Social Security has been spending more money than it takes in since 2021. It’s been able to stay afloat by tapping the reserves in the program’s trust funds, put there in past years when the program’s income was higher and payable benefits were lower. But it can’t do this forever. It’s slowly whittling away the trust funds, and they’re expected to run out around 2035.

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The shortfall is expected to be around 1.2% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 75 years, or about $22.6 trillion. It’s not easy to find that kind of extra cash, which is why the government hasn’t made any progress toward fixing this issue so far.

The good news is that it’s unlikely the government will do nothing while Social Security suffers massive cuts. The program’s faced funding issues before, and Congress has always stepped in to get it the money it needs to continue. There’s no reason to think this time will be any different. The bad news is that $22.6 trillion has to come from somewhere, and someone’s going to be left holding the bill.

Trump wants to tap the wealth under Americans’ feet

Trump once proposed tackling Social Security’s funding shortfall by increasing the country’s oil and gas leasing revenue. The appeal of this strategy is that it doesn’t hurt working Americans by raising payroll taxes, nor does it take any Social Security benefits from seniors who depend on them.

However, the income this is likely to generate wouldn’t be adequate to eliminate Social Security’s shortfall. Even if all federal and private lands in the U.S. were opened to oil and gas leasing, that would only provide about $5 trillion in value, according to a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) report that looked at 2023 data. Income tax on the oil and gas extraction industry would add a bit more, but it’s still far from the $22.6 trillion the government would need — and that’s the best-case scenario.

Current oil and gas leasing provides far less revenue. It only amounted to about $20 billion in the 2022 fiscal year. The CRFB report estimated that this revenue would need to be about 27 times larger than it actually is to eliminate Social Security’s funding shortfall.

What this means for Social Security

Based on these numbers, it’s safe to say Trump’s plan won’t resolve Social Security’s funding crisis, even if he manages to increase oil and gas leasing in his second term. This doesn’t mean that any potential revenue gained from this leasing couldn’t help reduce the funding shortfall, but the government would have to pair the strategy with other income sources.

The trouble is, the other major options are less desirable because they’d raise taxes. One strategy that has the most support is raising or eliminating the ceiling on income subject to Social Security tax. In 2025, you only pay these taxes on the first $176,100 you earn. Raising this ceiling would increase the taxes high earners pay without affecting low or average earners.

Even then, it’s possible the government may have to increase the Social Security payroll tax rate that all workers pay. Currently, it is 12.4%, split evenly between employee and employer. A recent Congressional Budget Office report indicated the government may need to raise this rate as high as 16.7% to eliminate the shortfall. That would cost someone earning $60,000 annually another $1,290 in taxes each year.

It’s unclear exactly what the government will decide, and any solution will likely involve multiple strategies. For now, the best thing to do is develop other retirement income sources so you’re less dependent on your benefits to make ends meet.

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