Over 51 million retirees receive Social Security. The popular federal program provides monthly benefits to nearly nine out of every 10 Americans age 65 or older. And this week is a big one for every single one of them.

Social Security’s 2025 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is only two days away. If you’re one of those 51 million-plus retirees, here’s what your increase will probably be.

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Two days and one number away

The Social Security Administration (SSA) has nearly everything it needs to announce the 2025 COLA. There’s only one missing number.

This missing number is the September Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its inflation report for September on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2025.

It won’t take SSA very long to determine the 2025 Social Security COLA once the September CPI-W figure is published. The calculation the agency uses is simple. The amount of the COLA is the increase of the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2024 compared to the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2023, rounded to the nearest one-tenth of 1%.

Theoretically, there could be no COLA. That would be the case if the the CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year is the same or less than the average for the previous year. While this has happened three times over the last 15 years, the chances of a repeat occurrence this year are slim to none.

What experts expect the 2025 COLA will be

Five of the six data points needed to calculate next year’s Social Security COLA are already available. Some experts have already estimated what they think next year’s increase will be.

The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL) is a nonprofit advocacy organization for seniors in the U.S. that watches Social Security like a hawk. It provides a projection of what the next COLA could be on a monthly basis.

In September, TSCL projected the 2025 Social Security COLA will be 2.5%. If the organization’s forecast is correct, it would amount to an average monthly benefit increase for retired workers of $48.

Independent analyst Mary Johnson also provides monthly estimates for the upcoming Social Security COLA, based on the latest inflation data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. She is on the same page as TSCL with her projection of a 2.5% increase.

How next year’s likely COLA stacks up historically

The 2.5% increase projected by TSCL and Johnson may be too low or too high. However, their estimate probably isn’t too far off for the simple reason that the September CPI-W is unlikely to swing by an extreme amount from the August number.

Assuming your 2025 COLA is 2.5%, how does that stack up historically? The increase will be smaller than retirees have received in recent years. In 2024, the annual adjustment was 3.2%. The year before, it was 8.7% — a reflection of the soaring inflation resulting in large part from the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, the COLA was 5.9%.

Going back to 1975, the year of the first automatic annual Social Security COLA, the average increase was nearly 3.8%. However, the average Social Security COLA over the last 20 years was 2.6%. If the estimate provided by TSCL and Johnson is correct, retirees will receive an increase that’s only slightly below that average.

How to find out what the 2025 Social Security COLA will be

All you need to do to find out what the actual 2025 Social Security COLA is on Thursday is go online. Many news organizations will publish the number almost immediately after it’s announced.

If you want to get the information straight from the horse’s mouth, though, you can go to the SSA website’s Communications Corner. This web page will include a news release about the 2025 COLA once it’s available. For those who don’t mind waiting to find out, SSA will begin notifying all individuals by mail about their new benefit amounts beginning in December.

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