If you’re among the many retirees today who rely on Social Security to make ends meet, then you may be eager to find out what your 2025 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will amount to. The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power from year to year as inflation drives the cost of living upward.

Social Security COLAs are calculated based on changes in inflation that take place during the third quarter of the year. Given that it’s already October, you’d think an official number would be available at this point.

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Actually, the Social Security Administration (SSA) won’t be able to announce a 2025 COLA until Oct. 10. So you’ll need to sit tight for a few more days to learn more about what to expect from your monthly benefits in the new year.

There’s a reason for the holdup

There’s a specific index that’s used to measure annual Social Security COLAs: the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-W readings are commonly released a week or so after the close of each month.

At this point, we have CPI-W data for July and August, but September is the missing piece of the puzzle. And we won’t have CPI-W data for September until Oct. 10, which is why that’s the date the SSA will be able to make an official announcement, and not sooner.

There’s a working estimate of next year’s Social Security COLA based on the CPI-W readings that are available to date, and it’s 2.5%. That number could wiggle upward or downward once September’s CPI-W is released. But it’s a number you can use as a starting point.

Even an official COLA announcement won’t give you all of your answers

At this point, you don’t have to wait much longer until Oct. 10. But even once the SSA puts out a COLA announcement, you may not know exactly how much your monthly benefit check will increase if you’re enrolled in Medicare.

People who are enrolled in Social Security and Medicare at the same time have their Part B premiums deducted from their monthly benefits automatically. But while we should learn of a 2025 Social Security COLA on Oct. 10, Medicare won’t necessarily be ready to announce its standard monthly Part B premium for 2025 by that point.

If the cost of Medicare Part B rises in 2025, it will eat into whatever COLA is applied to Social Security benefits. So you’ll need to wait on that Medicare announcement to figure out how much more money to expect each month.

As an example, say you collect $2,000 a month in Social Security and next year’s COLA ends up being 2.5%. If you’re not a Medicare enrollee, you can expect that raise to put an extra $50 in your pocket each month. But if you are enrolled in Medicare and the cost of Part B rises by $8, you’ll be left with a $42 monthly raise.

There’s a silver lining

There’s a good chance 2025’s Social Security COLA will be smaller than 2024’s. But the positive news there is that inflation is also cooling. While your Social Security check may not increase all that much, you might get relief by paying less for things like groceries and gas throughout the year.

Once you get all of the information to figure out how much your monthly income will increase in 2025, you can assess your spending to see if changes are necessary. If cutting back on bills seems like a difficult thing, look to join the gig economy if you fear money will be tight.

The nice thing about gig work is that you can do it on your own schedule. And you may find that putting in a few hours a week puts a lot more money in your bank account than next year’s Social Security COLA — regardless of what it amounts to.

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