President Donald Trump kicked off his second term with a flurry of executive orders aimed at getting his ambitious political agenda off to a fast start. At the top of Trump’s list appears to be issues related to immigration, tariffs, taxes, and much more.

Social Security has not been the subject of his attention yet, although the President did say he doesn’t think seniors should have to pay taxes on their Social Security benefits. However, this is not the core problem the program faces. Will Trump confront Social Security’s most glaring issue during his second term?

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Time is ticking

Social Security is the largest federal social program the government offers, helping tens of millions of Americans support themselves. In 2024, $1.5 trillion in benefits were paid out to an average 68 million Americans per month.

However, largely due to demographic changes, such as an aging population, longer lifespans, and lower birth rates, payroll taxes collected on behalf of the program are no longer able to support all of the benefits that need to be paid out each year. This has forced the program to dip into its reserve fund, which is now being depleted rapidly. In May, the Social Security Board of Trustees said the program’s trust funds will be able to pay all scheduled benefits until 2035. At this time, the program would not end, but revenues collected from payroll taxes would only be able to pay out 83% of scheduled benefits.

This would obviously be a major issue, given that a third of retirees over the age of 65 receive more than half of their income from Social Security benefits, and at least 12% rely on benefits for 90% or more of their income. A significant reduction in benefits could lead to a sizable portion of the population having issues securing shelter, food, and healthcare, which could have broader ramifications for the country.

Image source: Getty Images.

Will Trump confront the issue?

It’s not always easy to predict which issues a sitting president will make a priority during their administration, and Trump has not indicated he will address Social Security’s funding shortfall. He certainly wouldn’t be alone among presidents in deciding to pass on the issue. Social Security is a touchy subject, given the impact and size of the program. Additionally, older Americans like retirees vote more frequently than younger generations, so politicians also risk becoming very unpopular if they make recommendations that are detrimental to Social Security.

Trump is serving his second term, so winning the next election isn’t a priority, but there’s no solution to Social Security’s shortfall that will satisfy all voters. Democrats’ main proposal has been to raise payroll tax revenue by allowing the government to tax more income. Most Republican proposals have called for cuts in various forms, such as raising the retirement age, although in recent years, even they have backed off from these proposals when asked about them publicly.

Trump himself has previously told Republicans that it’s not good politics to cut Medicare and Social Security. “Do not cut the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives. Save Social Security. Don’t destroy it,” he said two years ago. However, Trump has also taken aim at the U.S. federal budget and debt, which investors are starting to notice. Social Security accounts for over 20% of annual spending by the government, which is the most of any budget category.

Ultimately, I expect this administration to punt on Social Security like other presidents before him. No one in D.C. wants to be blamed for any cuts that may happen to the program, meaning the victorious party in 2032 will likely be the one forced to act.

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