If you’re 50 and sitting on a million-dollar nest egg, congratulations! It can take decades of saving and investing in a brokerage account to reach that point. As to how long it will last, there are a lot of factors to consider, including your location, lifestyle, and the overall economy.
Knowing whether you can retire with $1 million is a tough call — particularly as it will be quite a few years before Social Security and Medicare kick in. Moreover, if the bulk of your money is in 401(k)s and IRAs, you may have to pay a penalty to access that money before you reach 59 1/2.
Here’s how to find out how long $1 million will last.
What the 4% rule tells us
The 4% rule is a great way to estimate how much you can withdraw annually for at least 30 years without running out of money. If you have $1 million, it tells us you could safely take out $40,000 in the first year. After that, you could confidently continue to withdraw the same amount, adjusted for inflation, for another 30 years or more.
You might be able to withdraw more than 4%; it’s just that the more you take out, the higher the probability that you’ll run out of money. If you want to make bigger withdrawals, you might choose a riskier mix of investments in the hope you’ll get higher returns. Similarly, a more aggressive portfolio might stretch to 35 or 45 years.
A financial planner can help you map out how different scenarios might work for your situation. To give you an idea, Fidelity ran simulations on different investment portfolios and market scenarios. It concluded that you’d have a 75% chance of stretching a balanced portfolio with a 5.6% withdrawal rate for 25 years. So if you wanted to withdraw $56,000 in your first year, you could be fairly certain it would last until you were 75.
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How much do you need each year?
We know that $1 million would comfortably sustain an income of $40,000 plus inflation for 30 years or more. To find out how that relates to you, we need to work out how much you’ll withdraw. The gap between your income and spending is the amount you’ll need to take from your investment portfolio.
In terms of spending, financial planners often estimate you’ll need about 80% of your current income once you retire. But that logic may not apply at 50. You may find your post-work lifestyle is similar cost-wise. If you plan on traveling, taking up an expensive hobby, or have health difficulties, it may cost more. Consider both your current income and any lifestyle changes when you estimate your costs.
Calculate your additional sources of income
Social Security is an important income source for many retirees, but you won’t be able to access it until you are at least 62. As such, it might help to break your planning into two sections: pre– and post–Social Security.
Here are some additional potential income sources to factor in:
- Pension
- Annuities
- Rental income
- Part-time work
- Dividend-paying stocks
- CDs and savings accounts
Let’s say you expect to spend $7,000 a month, and your additional income will generate $3,000. You’d need to take $4,000 a month — $48,000 a year — from your brokerage accounts. With a $1 million portfolio, that’s a withdrawal rate of 4.8%. As we saw above, in that scenario, you could be relatively confident your money would last for 30 years or more.
$1 million may not last as long as you hope
Although the CDC says the average life expectancy in the U.S. is 77.5 years, there’s a good chance you’ll live into your 80s or 90s. As such, if you stop working at 50, you might want more confidence that your money will last longer than 30 years.
Not only that, but some people’s lives are more expensive than others. Your money will go a lot further if you live in Mississippi vs. Hawaii. Even if you live in a low-cost area, you may find you don’t have enough extra income sources to supplement your investment.
If you find you’ll be drawing too heavily on your investments or want them to last longer, you have a few options. You can cut your expenses, find another source of income, or build your investment portfolio more.
Don’t be afraid to wait a bit longer
If you worry $1 million isn’t enough, consider taking a little more time to build your fund. Spending a few more years in the workplace would get you closer to accessing Social Security and other retirement benefits.
Your portfolio would also have longer to accumulate value. Plus, those over 50 can get extra tax benefits by making catch-up contributions to their IRAs. We’ve picked some of the best brokerages for IRAs here.
At 50, you’ve still got a lot of years ahead of you. If you’ve already saved $1 million, it would be a shame to spend any of those years worrying about money.
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